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Forecasting the U.S. Elections

The Economist is analysing polling, economic and demographic data to predict America’s elections in 2020

Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college.



Chance of winning the electoral college:


Joe Biden:  87% (not quite 9 in 10)

Donald Trump: 12% (better than 1 in 10)


Chance of winning the most votes:


Joe Biden:  98% (better than 19 in 20)

Donald Trump: 2% (not quite 1 in 20)



Predicted range of electoral college votes
(270 to win)


Joe Biden: 235 -410

Donald Trump: 126-303



Estimated electoral college votes (270 to win)


Joe Biden:  339

Donald Trump: 199


(Our model is updated every day and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict a range of outcomes. The midpoint is the estimate of the electoral-college vote for each party on election day.)


Modelled popular vote on each day


Joe Biden: 54.2%

Donald Trump: 45.8%



Elections USA 2020



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