How Venezuela’s Maduro Is Testing Trump
Caracas restarts repatriation flights in hopes of getting sanctions relief it doesn’t deserve.
Nicolás Maduro addresses supporters during an event in Caracas, Venezuela, Feb. 27. Photo: maxwell briceno/Reuters
A Venezuelan military patrol ship sailed into Guyanese waters on March 1 and approached an ExxonMobil
Guyana said it “condemned” the action “in the strongest possible terms.” The State Department called the move by Venezuela “unacceptable and a clear violation of Guyana’s internationally-recognized maritime territory.” It added: “Further provocation will result in consequences for the Maduro regime. The United States reaffirms its support for Guyana’s territorial integrity and the 1899 arbitral award.”
So much for the nice-guy act Mr. Maduro put on when a Trump official visited Caracas in January to secure the release of six American hostages. Mr. Maduro used a photo-op with the U.S. envoy as propaganda to advance the narrative that relations between the two countries have normalized. The Venezuelan opposition and President Trump’s supporters in south Florida were dismayed.
But Mr. Trump signaled last month that voters who backed him in the hope of a maximum pressure campaign against the dictatorship still matter to him. He has to weigh the support of those voters against the pressure he’s getting from American lobbyists whose interests are aligned with Mr. Maduro.
A 2020 federal indictment accuses Mr. Maduro of narco-terrorism and other charges. On Jan. 10 the U.S. had upped the reward for his arrest or conviction to $25 million from $15 million.
On Feb. 26, Mr. Trump announced he would rescind Treasury licenses, issued by the Biden administration, for Chevron and its subsidiaries to work with the Venezuelan dictatorship. The president reasoned that Caracas hadn’t met the “electoral conditions” the U.S. expected. Translation: Mr. Maduro stole the July presidential vote from the democratic opposition last year and his claim to the office is illegitimate.
Mr. Trump complained further that Venezuelan officials have “not been transporting the violent criminals that they sent into our Country (the Good Ole’ U.S.A.) back to Venezuela at the rapid pace that they had agreed to.”
An additional point not mentioned by Mr. Trump in his warning to Mr. Maduro is that the largely Russian- and Iranian-supplied Venezuelan military has increased threats against U.S. ally Guyana in recent years. That too makes sanctions-tightening a no-brainer.
Venezuela’s agreementlast week to restart migrant repatriation flights is an attempt to get Mr. Trump to reverse the rescission of the oil licenses. Losing them is a setback for Mr. Maduro as much as it is for Chevron and smaller companies affected. Ditto for bond vultures who bought the distressed debt of state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela at a deep discount. But should an arsonist be rewarded for putting out the fire?
Mr. Maduro has tried to destabilize the U.S. using a criminal network called Tren de Aragua that he cultivated. But he’s paid no price. Lift the sanctions and he’ll have more dollars to do more damage at home and abroad.
Tren de Aragua dates to at least 2014, when armed inmates at the Tocorón penitentiary in the state of Aragua overpowered guards and seized control of the prison. Aragua Gov. Tareck El Aissami, a former Venezuelan minister of domestic security, permitted the new order to remain in place. (Mr. El Aissami was also the regime’s go-to guy for all relations with the Middle East until his arrest last year on corruption charges.)
The gang used its power to extort the prison population and their family members. The government looked away as gang leaders came and went from prison as they wished. Their network spread to surrounding cities and towns and other Venezuelan states as they took territory and ran shakedown rackets. The regime became partners with the thugs, granting them power over government food rations and other aspects of daily life. But they hit the jackpot when, as the economy collapsed and Venezuelans began emigrating in large numbers, Tren de Aragua took control of human smuggling.
In 2023 the government stormed and cleared the Tocorón prison, taking away an important Tren de Aragua asset. Mysteriously there was no resistance. The gang’s leaders had disappeared. And while the government claims to have transferred inmates to other facilities, thousands remain unaccounted for. Intelligence sources from around the region believe many were sent to the U.S. with the help of Tren de Aragua smugglers.
Venezuela has called Tren de Aragua “fiction.” But countries as ideologically diverse as Colombia, Peru and Chile say it’s real and violent. In July the U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on Tren de Aragua, warning that it is “expanding throughout the Western Hemisphere.”
On Saturday Mr. Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act to deport Tren de Aragua members. A federal judge issued an injunction halting the move for 14 days. There’s good reason for the delay: The administration is sending the Venezuelans to El Salvador. That country has become a police state under President Nayib Bukele, as a 2023 State Department report detailed. On Sunday the White House announced that “nearly 300 Tren De Aragua terrorists” have already been arrested, “extracted and removed to El Salvador.”
Venezuelan migrants have been a plus for the U.S. overall, but the gangsters have been poison. Some of those who see Venezuela as a carcass to be picked over are trying to convince the Trump administration that the sanctions are driving misery and migration. Nothing could be further from the truth. Venezuelans are running away from repression. For the good of the Venezuelan people and U.S. national security, maximum pressure leading to regime change is the only way out.
Write to O’Grady@wsj.com.
