Los votantes de DeSantis apoyan la ayuda a Ucrania. Y él también debería.
También se preguntó a los encuestados si los más de 27.400 millones de dólares en ayuda a la seguridad que Estados Unidos ha proporcionado a Ucrania desde que Vladimir Putin la invadió «¿es una inversión justificada en la protección de un aliado y su pueblo o un gasto injustificado en una guerra extranjera?» En esto, los republicanos se dividieron casi por igual, 49 por ciento a favor y 51 por ciento en contra. Frente a un campo abarrotado, el 44 por ciento de los partidarios de Trump y el 48 por ciento de los partidarios de DeSantis dijeron que nuestra inversión en Ucrania estaba justificada. Pero en una hipotética carrera de dos entre Trump y DeSantis, el 59 por ciento de los que apoyan a DeSantis dijeron que nuestra ayuda de seguridad a Ucrania es dinero bien gastado.
Cuando se les preguntó si apoyarían dar a Ucrania 10.000 millones de dólares adicionales, el 48 por ciento de los republicanos dijeron que sí. En un campo muy concurrido, el 42 por ciento de los partidarios de Trump y el 48 por ciento de los partidarios de DeSantis estaban a favor de dar a Ucrania la ayuda adicional. Pero en una competencia de dos, la proporción de partidarios de DeSantis que dijeron que darían más a Ucrania aumentó al 58 por ciento. En otras palabras, mientras que el GOP está dividido sobre si nuestra ayuda a Ucrania está justificada (y los partidarios de Trump son ligeramente más propensos a decir que estamos dando a Ucrania demasiado), los votantes de las primarias republicanas inclinados hacia DeSantis favorecen desproporcionadamente más ayuda de seguridad para Ucrania.
Todo esto sugiere que DeSantis está adoptando el enfoque equivocado cuando intenta apelar a los votantes MAGA al declarar que la guerra en Ucrania es una «disputa territorial» y afirmando que se preocupa «más por asegurar nuestra propia frontera en Estados Unidos que lo que me preocupo por la frontera entre Rusia y Ucrania.» Mientras que la base MAGA de Trump es ligeramente más propensa que la mayoría de los republicanos a oponerse a ayudar a Ucrania, estos votantes son una minoría de los votantes primarios del GOP – y nunca abandonarán al ex presidente. DeSantis no gana nada tratando de apelar a ellos. Solo parece débil, y aleja a los votantes pro-Ucrania que están abiertos a apoyar su candidatura.
En lugar de tratar de ganarse a los votantes «duros» de MAGA, DeSantis necesita consolidar el apoyo de los republicanos que quieren que alguien que no sea Trump sea el nominado del GOP, mientras recoge a los votantes «blandos» de MAGA a los que se puede convencer de que es hora de abandonar a Trump. Esos votantes apoyan desproporcionadamente a Ucrania.
Dadas estas cifras, DeSantis no debería vacilar sobre Ucrania. Hacerlo le gana poco apoyo de los republicanos MAGA duros anti-Ucrania, mientras que aliena a los votantes MAGA y otros votantes del GOP que comparten una visión del mundo reaganiana. Por el contrario, DeSantis debería adoptar una postura audaz en apoyo de los luchadores por la libertad de Ucrania y apoyarlos hasta que derroten a Rusia y expulsen al ejército de Vladimir Putin.
Esa es la decisión políticamente inteligente. También es lo correcto.
Traducción: Marcos Villasmil
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NOTA ORIGINAL:
The Washington Post
DeSantis voters support aid for Ukraine. So should he.
That is a mistake — both substantively and politically.
A Harvard CAPS-Harris poll shows that while some MAGA Republicans agree with Trump’s soft stance on Ukraine, many more Republicans still support Ukraine. And the primary voters who back DeSantis — or say they are open to backing him in a two-way race — prefer his old, pro-Ukraine position.
Asked whether they had a favorable view of Ukraine, just 42 percent of Trump supporters said yes. But 51 percent of Republicans overall — and 55 percent of DeSantis supporters — have a favorable view, the poll found. That is a 13-point difference in pro-Ukraine sentiment among DeSantis supporters over Trump supporters.
Respondents were then asked whether they agreed that the United States should support Ukraine “until Russia pulls all invading forces from its territory or is defeated on the battlefield” — the most hawkish position possible. Sixty percent of all Republicans agreed that we should support Ukraine until Russia is defeated or driven out, a clear and strong majority. Meanwhile, 53 percent of Trump voters were in favor of supporting Ukraine — slightly below the GOP average but still a majority. DeSantis supporters? A decisive 63 percent said we should back Ukraine until it achieves complete victory.
When the field was narrowed to just Trump and DeSantis, the responses were even more stark: A whopping 69 percent of those who support DeSantis said we should back Ukraine until victory.
What does this tell us? First, many Republicans still support helping Ukraine. Second, DeSantis supporters are more hawkish than Trump supporters. Third, the voters DeSantis attracts away from other candidates if the field is narrowed are likely to be even more hawkish on Ukraine. Seven in 10 want to help drive Russia out of every inch of Ukrainian territory it has unlawfully seized.
Respondents were also asked whether the more than $27.4 billion in security assistance the United States has provided Ukraine since Vladimir Putin invaded “is a justified investment in the protection of an ally and its people or an unjustified expenditure in a foreign war?” On this, Republicans were almost evenly split, 49 percent in favor to 51 percent opposed. When faced with a crowded field, 44 percent of Trump supporters and 48 percent of DeSantis supporters said our investment in Ukraine was justified. But in a hypothetical two-man race between Trump and DeSantis, 59 percent of those who back DeSantis said our security assistance to Ukraine is money well spent.
When asked if they would support giving Ukraine an additional $10 billion, 48 percent of Republicans said yes. In a crowded field, 42 percent of Trump supporters and 48 percent of DeSantis supporters favored giving Ukraine the additional help. But in a two-man race, the share of DeSantis supporters who said they would give more to Ukraine rose to 58 percent. In other words, while the GOP is split on whether our aid to Ukraine is justified (and Trump supporters are slightly more likely to say we are giving Ukraine too much), Republican primary voters inclined toward DeSantis disproportionately favor more security assistance for Ukraine.
All of this suggests that DeSantis is taking the wrong approach when he tries to appeal to MAGA voters by dismissing the war in Ukraine as a “territorial dispute” and declaring that he cares “more about securing our own border in the United States than I do about the Russia-Ukraine border.” While Trump’s MAGA base is slightly more likely than most Republicans to oppose helping Ukraine, these voters are a minority of GOP primary voters — and they will never abandon the former president. DeSantis gains nothing by trying to appeal to them. He only looks weak, and he alienates pro-Ukraine voters who are open to supporting his candidacy.
Instead of trying to win over “hard” MAGA voters, DeSantis needs to consolidate the support of Republicans who want someone other than Trump to be the GOP nominee, while picking off “soft” MAGA voters who can be convinced it is time to move on from Trump. Those voters disproportionately support Ukraine.
Given these numbers, DeSantis should not be waffling on Ukraine. Doing so gains him little support from hard MAGA anti-Ukraine Republicans while alienating those MAGA and other GOP voters who share a Reaganite worldview. Rather, DeSantis should take a bold stance in support of the Ukrainian freedom fighters and back them until they defeat Russia and drive out Vladimir Putin’s army.
That’s the smart move politically. It’s also the right thing to do.