Stratfor: Why U.S. Diplomats Are Reaching Out to Venezuela

Analysis

Editor’s Note: Stratfor pays close attention to the enduring crisis in Venezuela. Contained here are a collection of recent analyses and reports pertaining to the economic, political and security situation in one of Latin America’s most dynamic and troubled countries. 

June 16

Recent discussions between Venezuelan and U.S. officials suggest that tentative negotiations between the two countries are taking shape. U.S. State Department Counselor Thomas Shannon has met with Venezuelan officials on three occasions — twice with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas and once with National Assembly Speaker Diosdado Cabello in Port au Prince, Haiti. The United States has begun engaging Venezuela at a time when Caracas’ public finances are stretching thin. These political contacts are still in an early stage but may grow into wider negotiations on Venezuela’s political future.

The information available about the meetings suggests that both sides may still be feeling out potential concessions rather than making substantive decisions. Shannon’s discussion in Haiti reportedly dealt with whether the United States would repeal an executive order imposing sanctions on seven Venezuelan officials allegedly involved in human rights violations. Some officials are part of a list of dozens of Venezuelan officials that includes Cabello, who faces a criminal investigation in a U.S. federal district court for allegedly facilitating cocaine trafficking to the United States, a fact U.S. negotiators could leverage. In the meeting, Shannon also reportedly asked for Venezuela to set a date for legislative elections and reiterated long-standing U.S. demands to release political prisoners.

Ultimately, both Caracas and Washington have incentives to approach these negotiations seriously. Maduro appears to be having trouble imposing badly needed political and economic reforms that would inevitably affect the interests of other Venezuelan leaders. Other leaders have already resisted change, delaying policies such as a devaluation of the country’s overvalued exchange rates and increases in gasoline prices. Cabello also likely wants to secure amnesty from a potential indictment for cocaine trafficking to the United States.

Simultaneously, Venezuela’s worsening economic crisis has motivated the United States to negotiate with Venezuelan officials to facilitate a smoother political and economic transition rather than to watch its disorganized economy collapse. But to enact the sweeping reforms Venezuela needs to mend its economic distortions, resistance from the military and other elite, such as Cabello, needs to be neutralized or negotiated away. Here the United States may exercise policies, whether in the form of further sanctions or continued criminal investigations, to induce Venezuelan officials to accept U.S. demands.