Trump’s Venezuelan War Games

Since February, Mr. Trump has designated nine Latin American cartels as foreign terrorist organizations. Two of them are Venezuelan, and one of those—the Cartel of the Suns—is directed by Mr. Maduro. A rumored U.S. presidential directive to the Pentagon this month instructed the military to use force against the cartels. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also sent a March message to Mr. Maduro to keep Venezuelan hands off the oil-rich waters belonging to neighboring Guyana.

But discrete American strikes on narcotics labs in the Venezuelan jungle wouldn’t take that much hardware, and neither would adding deterrence to defend Guyana. What might require this many high-value U.S. military assets, on the other hand, is an effort to pressure Mr. Maduro to abdicate, or perhaps oust him, even without boots on the ground. Has Mr. Trump made a decision to take that step?

Toppling Mr. Maduro is a worthy goal. He lost last year’s presidential election to opposition candidate Edmundo González by 70% to 30%, and today even greater numbers of Venezuelans want the dictator gone. He’s running a criminal organization out of Caracas that trafficks in humans, drugs and weapons. His closest allies are Russia, Cuba, China and Iran. His regime has worsened Venezuelan privation, and more than eight million people have fled, triggering a humanitarian crisis across the Americas. His government sows Cuban-style revolution in the region.

Venezuela’s democratic opposition claims it has specific intelligence indicating that elements of the military are prepared to break with Maduro comandantes by refusing to obey orders. Democracy advocates have the advantage of a unifying figure in President-elect González, who is currently in exile but could be quickly sworn in to stand up a new government.

If that’s right, perhaps the U.S. military assets nearby could convince Mr. Maduro it’s in his best interest to leave rather than fight. His claim to have a militia of more than four million who will defend him isn’t credible given his unpopularity at the polls last year. But in recent days he has sent warships and drones to the north Venezuelan coast. Things could get bloody, particularly in the south of the country, if the regime’s drug-trafficking brigades and army die-hards dig in.

Mr. Trump has run hot and cold on support for the Venezuelan opposition. He backed National Assembly leader Juan Guaidó as interim president in 2019, at least initially, but lost his nerve when the plan didn’t go smoothly. He has issued sanctions to keep oil companies from working for the regime but has also issued carve-outs for Chevron when pressed by lobbyists.

A halfhearted operation to remove Mr. Maduro that is unprepared for armed resistance is asking for trouble. If the U.S. encourages Venezuelans to stick out their necks only to abandon them, as it did in Cuba at the Bay of Pigs six decades ago, it would do the cause for liberty in the country more harm than good.

It’s military wisdom that battle plans go out the window the moment the fighting starts. If the U.S. isn’t committed to finishing the job, or if it isn’t backed by intelligence linked to allies inside Mr. Maduro’s military, an intervention might not be worth the cost to Venezuelans and U.S. defense capabilities elsewhere, which are already spread thin. But a Venezuela free from Nicolás Maduro is in the U.S. national interest, if it can be done.