New York Times: Who Will Be President?
Hillary Clinton has about a 76% chance of winning the presidency.
CHANCE OF WINNING
76%
Hillary Clinton
24%
Donald J. Trump
The Upshot’s elections model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, based on the latest state and national polls. A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same probability that an N.B.A. player will miss a free throw.
From now until Election Day, we’ll update our estimates with each new poll, as well as collect the ratings of other news organizations.
How Other Forecasts Compare
The New York Times is one of many news organizations to publish election ratings or forecasts. Some, like FiveThirtyEight or the Princeton Election Consortium, use statistical models, as The Times does; others, like the Cook Political Report, rely on reporting and knowledgeable experts’ opinions. PredictWise uses information from betting markets.
We compile and standardize these ratings every day into one scoreboard for comparison. First, every organization’s estimate for who will win the presidency:
