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Octubre electoral – América 2.1 Octubre este año será más caliente que otros, por el calor de tres elecciones durante ese mes Octubre este año será más caliente que otros; y el calor vendrá de tres importantes elecciones presidenciales: Brasil iniciará el 5, le seguirá Bolivia el 12, mientras que Uruguay cerrará el 26. En estos comicios buscan su reelección tres presidentes de izquierda: Dilma da Silva Rousseff, del Partido dos Trabalhadores; Evo Morales Ayma, del Movimiento al Socialismo; y Tabaré Vázquez Rosas (el único que no apuesta por reelección inmediata), por el Frente Amplio. Los tres empezaron el año, incluso ante de sus proclamaciones, con márgenes expectables. Sin embargo hoy, en vísperas de estas elecciones, solo Morales aparece reforzado en las encuestas (aunque aún lejos de su meta del 74% de votos).
Rousseff arrancó con relativa tranquilidad su reelección: a pesar de las protestas sociales de 2013, los escándalos de corrupción para la Copa Mundial y el pobre desempeño económico del país, superaba con comodidad a los otros dos principales aspirantes presidenciales: Aécio Neves da Cunha (nieto de Tancredo de Almeida Neves, primer presidente electo tras los militares) y Eduardo Accioly Campos. Pero la muerte de éste último elevó a su candidata vicepresidencial Marina Silva Vaz de Lima (ecologista y evangélica) a la nominación para la primera magistratura; el momento no podía ser más propicio para ella y peor para Rousseff, porque coincidía con el segundo periodo en recesión económica y los escándalos de megacorrupción petista en Petrobras.
En Uruguay, Vázquez lideraba con comodidad las encuestas, pero aunque hoy aún ganaría la primera vuelta, no tendría el margen para ser electo presidente y necesitaría ir al ballotage en noviembre. El imprevisto triunfo de Luis Lacalle Pou (hijo del expresidente Luis Alberto Lacalle de Herrera) en las primarias de su partido podría ubicarlo en la misma categoría que Silva: “candidatos sorpresa”. Para el Frente Amplio, la segunda vuelta sería el momento más difícil, porque aunque todas las encuestas le dan mayoría relativa (entre 42 y 39% de intenciones), la suma de los votos de los otros dos partidos principales (Nacional y Colorado) lo superan en todos los escenarios de aproximación. Esto en un país donde ha sido usual que esos dos partidos, fuera del poder e incluso dentro, se alíen y sumen esfuerzos.
Por el contrario, Morales ha ido mejorando en los estudios de intenciones de voto. En una campaña sin novedades programáticas y cuyo tema más debatido ha sido el machismo en los candidatos, marcada por el boom económico del país (que puede ser muy circunstancial y pasajero, pero que hasta hoy ha beneficiado económicamente a toda la población, incluido el empresariado) y la incapacidad de agruparse el espectro opositor, las novedades podrían estar en el voto cruzado: presidencial para Evo y para asambleísta nacional de otra sigla.
Un panorama que para Brasil y Uruguay puede significar el ocaso de sus experiencias de izquierda, y que para Bolivia conllevará la necesidad de una profunda reingeniería opositora y de todos sus liderazgos actuales.
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