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La amenazante sombra de China – América 2.1 China ha pasado en apenas unas décadas de ser un país subdesarrollado, donde gran parte de la población pasaba hambre, a ser un gigante económico de alcance planetario. Su transformación en una temible potencia militar fue siempre una etapa perfectamente previsible, salvo tal vez por la velocidad fulgurante con la que ha logrado convertirse en un factor estratégico con capacidad real para desafiar incluso a Estados Unidos. La idea de que el régimen comunista pueda estar preparándose para instalar una base naval en territorio de Guinea Ecuatorial supondría un paso cualitativo formidable en su carrera por respaldar con poderío militar sus intereses económicos en todo el mundo. Una base naval en el Atlántico le permitiría gozar de una capacidad de proyección desconocida en el hemisferio occidental.
China tiene ya una base naval en Yibuti, tener una segunda en la costa atlántica equipararía su poderío estratégico con el que pretende lograr EE.UU. en el Indo-Pacífico con el acuerdo Aukus con Australia. Con este elemento añadido, el pulso sobre el futuro de Taiwan que se avizora a medio plazo tendría necesariamente otras coordenadas pues permitiría a China extender su amenaza a las dos fachadas marítimas de EE.UU., con todo lo que ello supone.
El hecho de que China pretenda ensanchar su músculo militar, como hacen otros países, no sería un asunto preocupante si en Pekín no hubiera una dictadura de partido único que carece del menor interés por los principios democráticos y que ignora sistemáticamente el respeto a los más elementales derechos humanos. La potencial amenaza que representa esa China como baluarte del totalitarismo (con aliados tan impresentables como el norcoreano Kim Jong-un o el venezolano Maduro) es seguramente el mayor desafío conocido que haya vivido la democracia desde el fin de la II Guerra Mundial. A diferencia de lo que suponía en su día la Unión Soviética, que fue un gigante militar pero un desastre económico, el régimen chino ha logrado conjugar las ventajas y la eficiencia del capitalismo con un desarrollo estratosférico de su tecnología militar, lo que le permite desafiar como modelo a las democracias liberales, enmascarando sus aristas en su indiscutible éxito económico. Lleva años acaparando buena parte de las materias primas mundiales, comprando yacimientos enteros por medio mundo. Lo que la dictadura comunista exporta, además de sus productos, es un modelo de pragmatismo antiliberal que es una amenaza real para las ideas democráticas en todo el mundo.
Lo que no se le puede negar a Xi Jinping es que ha entendido perfectamente que para sostener su desarrollo económico necesita una potencia militar creíble para defenderlo. China sabe que ahora necesita tener una presencia militar en todo el mundo y si la dictadura ecuatoguineana no accede a sus pretensiones, lo intentará en otro país de la zona. Esta es la primera vez en la historia milenaria de China en la que este país pretende instalar una base militar propia en una zona tan alejada de su área histórica de influencia; y a paciencia no les gana nadie.
Los europeos deberíamos darnos prisa en aprender la lección ante ese incierto futuro polarizado que está a la vuelta de la esquina. Porque Europa puede ser aún un gigante económico pero es menos que insignificantes desde el punto de vista militar. Y si no podemos intervenir de forma activa en el formidable pulso que se avecina, y del que probablemente va a depender el futuro de la civilización occidental, no tendremos más remedio que asumir las consecuencias que nos toquen. Nos gusten o no.
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